New Rates for ComEd Include Increase in October; Big Savings Available by Shopping for Power

Commonwealth Edison , which serves customers in the Chicago area and surrounding areas of Illinois, has posted electric rates for the 12-month period beginning June 1, 2012, and although the summer rates are marginally lower, electric rates for the non-summer period of October 2012 through May 2013 will be higher, despite the currently low electric rates available in the market. Customers can avoid the rate hikes and maximize their savings by shopping for a low electric rate with SaveOnEnergy.com.

For example, for non-residential customers, ComEd’s electric supply charge for the summer period (June through September) is only about 11% below the current rate. However, savings of 30-40% are available by shopping for a lower electric rate from a competing electric supplier .

But what’s worse is that after these meager summer savings, ComEd’s electric rates are set to rise in October, with rates not just higher than the summer rates, but higher than last year’s non-summer rates as well.

For example, for customers in the Watt-hour Non-Electric Space Heating class and the Demand Non-Electric Space Heating class — covering most small and mid-sized businesses — ComEd’s non-summer electric supply charge, for the months of October 2012 through May 2013, will increase to nearly 8 cents per kWh.

This increase defies the current low electric rates available in the market, and results from ComEd’s using above-market, “out-of-the-money” power contracts to serve its load, rather than buying power at the currently low energy prices .

The rate increase will wipe-out any meager savings from ComEd’s summer rates, but the good news is that customers don’t have to pay ComEd’s inflated rates. With the competition introduced into the Illinois electric industry , customers can now choose among competing alternative retail electric suppliers to find the lowest electric rate .

SaveOnEnergy.com can get Illinois businesses the lowest electric rate by making competing electric suppliers battle each other for your business .

When logging onto SaveOnEnergy.com, business owners can take just a few minutes to enter some information about their business (such as the amount of their average monthly bill), and the information is then instantly transmitted to a group of vetted, pre-qualified electric suppliers , who will compete head to head to offer you the lowest rate.

Using SaveOnEnergy.com’s exchange portal, businesses can quickly find an alternative to the coming electric rate hikes at ComEd, and save money on their energy bill .

Increase in Texas Power Price Cap Could Bankrupt Retail Electric Providers; Find a Financially Viable Provider With SaveOnEnergy.com

The proposed increase in the wholesale electric market price cap in Texas to $4,500 per megawatt-hour, previously discussed by SaveOnEnergy.com , could lead to retail electric providers going out of business, state officials have warned, with such fears privately expressed by several retail electric providers as well.

In order to ensure the state has enough power plants to serve increasing demand, the Public Utility Commission of Texas  has proposed raising the wholesale energy price cap, which is currently at $3,000/MWh, to $4,500/MWh, effective August 1. The higher price cap, which is rarely hit during the year, is meant to incent the building of new generation, as current generating capacity cannot meet projected demand in the future.

However, the August 1, 2012 effective date has raised concerns that it does not give retail electric providers , who buy power in the wholesale market, enough time to prepare for the higher price cap. Aside from just the potential for higher prices, the bigger impact for retail electric providers from the higher price cap is additional collateral requirements they must post to trade in the market. These collateral requirements can strain retail electric suppliers’ balance sheets, and with only three months prior to the higher price cap taking effect, some state officials are worried that retail electric providers may not have enough time to execute new credit and hedging agreements as they would normally do to mitigate the impact of the $4,500 price cap.

In a letter to the Public Utility Commission, Texas State Representative Sylvester Turner noted that in 2008, five retail electric providers went out of business because of price shocks in the wholesale market caused by congestion, while additional retail providers sold their customers to competitors to avoid default.

” [W] hat will be the impact if the cap goes to $4,500 per megawatt/hour in August of this year, as has been proposed? What happens if the cap is tripled in the years that follow, as has been suggested,” Turner asked.

Several retail electric providers have privately echoed these concerns, and worry that the immediate increase in the price cap may produce a repeat of 2008, which saw thousands of customers transferred to the Provider of Last Resort when their originally chosen retail provider went of business. The Provider of Last Resort is a “safety net” provider which charges a high, volatile market-based electric rate .

Customers can protect themselves from the risk of their retail electric provider going out of business, and paying the high Provider of Last Resort rate, by shopping for a reputable retail electric provider with SaveOnEnergy.com.

The industry experts at SaveOnEnergy.com rigorously vet all the retail electric providers in the market, and only allow those that are financially sound and viable to compete for customers through the SaveOnEnergy.com platform. SaveOnEnergy.com performs stress tests on retail electric providers to screen out those with weak balance sheets or those that can’t withstand market shocks, like a short-notice increase in the price cap to $4,500.

When you shop for a low energy rate with SaveOnEnergy.com , you can be assured that the energy provider can stand behind the rate, and will be around for the long haul. That means you can save money with peace of mind, and avoid the pitfalls of choosing an unproven supplier .

Texas Electric Rates Still at Historic Lows, Now Is the Time to Shop

Even as summer approaches, retail Texas electric rates remain at historic lows, making now the best time to shop for a new energy provider with SaveOnEnergy.com.

Texas electric rates always go up in the summer as air conditioner demand pushes up prices. But this summer, as previously noted by SaveOnEnergy.com, power prices in Texas are expected to be especially high and volatile because of (1): a shortage of excess generating capacity and (2) an expected 50% increase in the wholesale electric price cap to $4,500 per megawatt-hour.

While these factors are already raising the “forward” wholesale prices in Texas — meaning power bought today for future delivery — current retail electric rates remain at historic lows, so customers should take advantage of the market-leading rates on SaveOnEnergy.com while they still can.

For example, fixed electric rates for residential customers in Dallas and Ft. Worth , in the Oncor area, are still only 8 cents per kWh, while variable rates are currently about 7 cents per kWh.

In Houston , at the CenterPoint territory, fixed electric rates are still only 9 cents per kWh, while variable rates are currently about 7 cents per kWh.

If you haven’t shopped for a lower electric rate in the past year, you are probably paying too much.

Electric rates for commercial and industrial customers are even lower, thanks to SaveOnEnergy.com’s exchange portal that puts electric suppliers in head to head competition for your business.

In the past, waiting until May to shop for a low electric rate was risky, because there was no guarantee that your switch would happen before the hot weather hits. Switching a retail electric provider used to take up to 30-45 days due to the meter read schedule, which meant a switch requested in May might not be completed until June or even July, with the customer staying on their old, high rate in the interim.

However, a few years ago Texas implemented a maximum seven business day switching period, so customers can get immediate savings from their new electric company. That means if you’ve procrastinated shopping for a low electric rate before the summer hits, SaveOnEnergy.com can still find you a low rate and get you on that low rate before you ramp up the air conditioner.

Customers at Entergy Texas Paying Higher Rates but Can’t Shop for Power

Although most of Texas is open to electric competition which allows customers to save money on their power bills by shopping for a low electric rate , significant parts of the state are still subject to a monopoly utility provider, where customers cannot escape the monopoly’s high rates. While a small number of customers at one of these monopolies, Entergy Texas , may soon have a limited ability to shop for their energy supply, the proposed program has fallen short of expectations that it would provide meaningful competition to customers.

The high rates charged by monopoly utilities in parts of Texas not open to competition (El Paso Electric, Entergy Texas, etc.) puts businesses in those areas at a competitive disadvantage versus their competitors in parts of the state open to electric choice , where electric rates are lower.

Nowhere is this more clear than at Entergy Texas, whose service area stretches from the border with Louisiana west all the way to Houston, and includes parts of the Houston metro area such as Conroe and The Woodlands. Most of Houston, including part of The Woodlands, is served by CenterPoint, which is open to electric choice , which has driven electric rates lower.

For example, in February, an average residential customer at Entergy Texas using 1,000 kWh paid $113.92 for electric service during the month, or 11.3¢/kWh. In contrast, at CenterPoint, residential customers could choose from fixed rates as low as 8¢/kWh — a savings of 30%. With such low electric rates available through competition, why can’t customers at Entergy shop for their electric provider , when their neighbors at CenterPoint can do so?

The Entergy Texas transmission and distribution wires are not part of the state’s main grid, called ERCOT, which covers about 75% of the state. Instead, Entergy is connected to the Eastern Interconnect, which covers the eastern half of the U.S.

As a result, the Entergy Texas system was isolated from the wholesale competition introduced into ERCOT in the mid-1990s that paved the way for retail electric choice beginning in 2002. While there is limited wholesale competition on the Entergy system, there is no organized market for buyers and sellers of power, like there is in ERCOT, and it is difficult to move power around the Entergy grid from new, competitive generators to existing loads.

Still, Texas law requires all investor-owned utilities to move to retail electric competition once certain conditions are met. In light of this goal, Entergy was engaged in an extended study through much of the last decade, eventually proposing to disconnect its system from the Eastern Interconnect and to join ERCOT, through the construction of new transmission lines, in order to provide its customers with the ability to shop for their electric provider .

However, for a variety of reasons, including the cost of the new transmission, the plan was shelved indefinitely, and the Texas legislature gave Entergy a reprieve on introducing electric choice to its service area until certain conditions were met.

Unfortunately for customers, since Entergy’s transition to competition plan was shelved in 2009 in response to such legislation, Entergy’s rates have continued to increase, while electric rates in areas open to choice, including at CenterPoint right next to Entergy’s service area, are at historic lows. Despite this disparity in rates, it does not appear that Entergy will be introducing widespread electric choice to its territory any time soon.

However, certain large customers may have the ability to engage in a limited choice program, but the program is falling short of expectations that it would provide many commercial and industrial customers with an opportunity to shop for power . Specifically, the 2009 legislation which delayed Entergy’s transition to competition did provide that Entergy shall create a “competitive generation service” tariff open to certain large customers that would allow certain customers to bypass Entergy’s system power in favor of power supplies selected by the customer.

The competitive generation service tariff was a compromise which was intended to allow non-residential customers to have some choice over their energy supply in exchange for not opposing the delay of a full-fledged choice program in the region.

Unfortunately, as it has worked its way through various proceedings before state regulators, the competitive generation service program has become very narrow in scope. The program would only be open to about 70 customers at Entergy — namely, those on Entergy’s Large Industrial Power Service (LIPS) tariff. Furthermore, customers would only be eligible for competitive generation service if the customer was at least 5 MW in size, and the total participation in the competitive generation service program is to be capped at 115 MW.

Customers, such as small and mid-sized commercial customers including retail stores and office buildings, would not be allowed to aggregate their demand to meet the 5 MW threshold needed to be eligible for competitive generation service. Originally, it was contemplated that choice under the competitive generation service tariff would be extended to smaller commercial customers through aggregation, but under the proposed 5 MW threshold, these customers would be stuck paying higher electric rates than their Houstonian neighbors at CenterPoint for years, until full competition finally comes to Entergy.

Commenting on what has become a very limited program, PUC Commissioner Kenneth Anderson concluded that, “everybody has labored mightily to produce a mouse,” and expressed disappointment that more customers at Entergy would not have the ability to choose their energy supplier at this time.

Texas Power Prices Already Rising in Anticipation of Higher Price Cap

Wholesale electric rates in Texas are already rising in response to a draft rule from the Public Utility Commission (PUC) of Texas which would increase the price cap in the wholesale market by 50% this summer, with such costs assuredly being passed on to retail electric customers .

Due to shrinking reserve margins — or the amount of “extra” generation capacity available on record-setting hot days like Texas had last summer — the PUC has moved forward with plans to raise the price cap in the wholesale electric market , which is currently $3,000 per megawatt-hour (MWh), or $3 per kilowatt-hour — or about 4000% higher than current retail electric rates .

Regulators believe a higher price cap is necessary to incent new generation and assure new entrants of being able to recover the sunk costs of building a 20-30 year investment such as a power plant. The price cap is only hit during shortages of power (a handful of hours each year), such as during the hot, summer “super peaks,” and regulators believe that the current $3,000 level, combined with the infrequent times it is hit, is inadequate to support the needed investment in new power plants .

Two of the three PUC commissioners support raising the price cap to $4,500 per MWh effective August 1, 2012. A draft proposal is currently out for public comment to finalize that change.

Although not yet final, the wholesale electric market has already reacted to the anticipated change, and forward energy prices have increased. Specifically, in the immediate aftermath of the PUC’s proposed decision last week raising the price cap by 50% to $4,500, summer pricing in ERCOT jumped the equivalent of 1 cent per kilowatt-hour. While that may sound small, it represented an increase of 13% from where wholesale power prices had been.

Moreover, for the average Texas residential customer , an increase of 1 cent per kilowatt-hour can mean an extra $120 in electricity costs per year.

PUC commissioners also intend to raise the price cap further starting in 2013, and have issued a second proposal which includes a potential increase to $5,000 beginning June 1, 2013; $7,000 beginning June 1, 2014; and $9,000 beginning June 1, 2015.

Downsides of Opt-Out Aggregations Revealed as Plans Move Forward

SaveOnEnergy.com has previously detailed the many myths and problems with municipal opt-out aggregations, under which local governments switch customers to a new electric supplier of the town’s choosing.

Now that some 200 Illinois municipalities are moving forward with the opt-out aggregations, these problems are becoming evident.

Most notable is that cities and towns with aggregations are trying to create a one-size-fits-all electric rate , but such rates don’t maximize the savings available to electric customers .

The savings available through electric choice come from tailoring electric products to meet customers’ individual electric load and usage patterns, as SaveOnEnergy.com does through head-to-head competition. Electric choice also gives individual customers the power to choose products that appeal to them (such as premium products including green energy , or low-cost “value” products). By lumping all customers together in one aggregation, low-cost customers subsidize customers with a higher cost of service, which decreases the savings available versus what customers could get by shopping in the electric market themselves.

Like many Illinois cities , Evanston is facing these questions after voters approved an opt-out aggregation.

Most notably, there is a dichotomy among residents regarding whether the city should buy renewable power — which costs more — or whether it should forego green power for a lower energy rate . Both options have merit, but the problem with aggregation is that a single decision will be made for all of the city’s diverse customers, unless a customer exercises their right to opt-out, and shop for their own power. If customers don’t opt out, they could end up paying inflated rates for renewable power, or lose their right to shop for a green power provider without first paying an “exit fee” to the aggregation.

The purpose of the exit fees, “is to avoid people shopping the marketplace,” reports Patch.com.

However, the competition in the marketplace is what produces the lowest electric rates . By taking customers out of the market, and denying customers the ability to shop, aggregations deprive customers of their choice, and their ability to find the lowest electric rate .

Some Texas Small Businesses May Soon Get Relief from “Ratchet” Charges

Some Texas small businesses and other small volume electric customers — such as ball fields, churches, and the like — may soon get relief from the “demand ratchet” which currently subjects these customers to higher electric rates .

A demand ratchet is a mechanism by which electric rates are billed based on either the peak demand by a customer in the current month, or some percentage of the peak demand for that customer during previous months. For example, with an 80 percent ratchet, if a customer were to demand 100 kW during August, that customer for the next 12 months would pay based on either actual monthly peak demand, or 80 kW (80 percent of 100), whichever is greater. If, in September, that customer had a peak demand of only 50 kW, the customer would still be charged based on 80 kW — 80 percent of the annual peak demand of 100 kW — because the customer’s energy demand for billing purposes would be “ratcheted” to 80 kW.

In other words, the customer is charged a demand that is higher than the demand they actually placed on the grid in that month.

The demand ratchet is designed to reflect the customer’s peak demand placed on the distribution system, and allocate costs for having to build and maintain the system to meet the demand of each customer at the system peak.

However, for many small customers with seasonal facilities or facilities which are only used occasionally, their peak usage does not come during peak times, and thus their demand is not adding to the total peak demand for which the electric distribution grid needs to be designed. In other words, the utilities do not have to account for those seasonal customers’ demands during peak times, and thus the utilities aren’t building “extra” capacity on the electric grid to serve those customers — but they’re still charging the customers the higher electric rates as if they were building the extra capacity.

For example, a church may have a demand of 100 kW on Sunday, but for the rest of the time — including peak weekday afternoons — it is drawing minimal energy , perhaps less than 5 kW. Similarly, a ball field will have its highest demand at night due to lighting, when such demand is not contributing to the system peak. When these customers’ have their highest demand, there is “excess” capacity on the distribution grid, and therefore it is inefficient to charge them as if their demand was contributing to the system peak, and requiring the utilities to build the system to meet that peak.

Consistent with legislation passed in the most recent session, the Public Utility Commission (PUC) of Texas is conducting a rulemaking to exempt certain customers from the demand ratchet, to reflect that these customers’ individual peaks do not contribute to the peak requirements of the distribution system.

Specifically, a PUC proposal currently out for public comment provides that a demand ratchet would not apply to a non-residential secondary voltage service customer that has an annual “load factor” less than or equal to 25 percent.

Stakeholders are currently debating whether the 25 percent threshold is the correct exemption level, or whether it should be expanded to cover more customers .

While the proposal is primarily intended to help ball fields, churches, and the like, the exemption would be available to all customers meeting the eligibility criteria noted above (non-residential secondary voltage service customer that has an annual load factor less than or equal to 25 percent); therefore low load factor small businesses would also receive relief from the demand ratchets.

The goal of the rulemaking, aside from the rate relief, is also to make the ratchet simpler to understand. Some of the utilities have demand ratchet exemptions already, but they have more complex eligibility criteria.

Sharyland-Cap Rock Customers a Step Closer to Choosing Their Own Electric Provider

Granting customers in the Stanton, Colorado City, Brady, and Celeste areas the right to choose their electricity provider took a step forward last week as most parties to a case before the Public Utility Commission of Texas concerning the transition to retail choice at Sharyland Utilities’ former Cap Rock service areas agreed to a settlement governing the transition.

The settlement still requires approval from the Public Utility Commission, but is only opposed by a single party. Parties signing the settlement include Staff of the Public Utility Commission, Sharyland Utilities, the City of Brady, several retail electric providers , and other parties.

As SaveOnEnergy.com previously noted, some 44,000 customers in what used to be the service territory of Cap Rock Energy (now part of Sharyland Utilities) cannot currently choose their electric provider , a right extended to most other customers in the state, including customers in Dallas, Houston, and Corpus Christi.

Due to the lack of competition, customers in the former Cap Rock service areas are paying higher electric rates than those available in parts of Texas open to choice. For example, residential customers at the ex-Cap Rock territories pay about 11¢/kWh for electricity, but rates at Oncor , a comparable service area, are as low as 7¢/kWh.

The settlement filed with the Public Utility Commission would introduce choice to customers at Sharyland’s Stanton, Colorado City, Brady, and Celeste divisions starting May 1, 2014, or 90 days after Sharyland files tariffs to implement approved unbundled distribution rates for the territories, whichever is later.

Once retail choice starts, Sharyland will no longer sell electricity supply to customers, and will only deliver this power supply to customers over its poles and wires.

Instead, customers will be able to choose among competing retail electric providers for their power supply.

Under the settlement, customers will be given an advanced opportunity to shop for a low electric rate from a retail electric provider prior to Sharyland’s official switch on May 1, 2014, with no interruption in service.

But what happens if customers do not shop for their own retail electric provider ?

Any customers who do not switch ahead of May 1, 2014 will be switched to one of several “default” retail electric providers (default REPs). These default retail electric providers act as a backstop, and are similar to the old affiliated retail electric providers originally used in Texas when choice was introduced to most parts of the state in 2002.

However, there are significant differences in how the default REP mechanism will work compared to the old affiliated retail electric providers. First, there was only a single affiliated retail electric provider serving non-shopping customers in each service area. In contrast, the settlement provides that at the ex-Cap Rock areas, multiple default REPs may be selected, with non-shopping customers randomly assigned to these different default REPs.

More importantly, the electric rate charged by the default REPs at Sharyland’s Stanton, Colorado City, Brady, and Celeste divisions will not be regulated by the Public Utility Commission. The settlement only requires that the rate charged by the default REP shall be a market-based, “month-to-month” product, which means the electric rate could change every month, at the default REP’s discretion.

In contrast, the old affiliated retail electric providers charged a “Price to Beat” which was regulated by the Public Utility Commission according to an established formula, and which did not change often.

Customers at Sharyland who do not choose their own REP may be subject to large swings in their electric rate if they are placed with the default REP. Accordingly, it will be crucial for customers to shop for a low electric rate prior to the assignment of customers to the default REP.

The good news is that customers at Sharyland can leave the default REP at any time, without paying a termination fee or other penalty.

The expansion of choice to the Sharyland Stanton, Colorado City, Brady, and Celeste divisions will benefit Texans, allowing them to save money on their power bills (possibly 30% based on current rate differentials) and allowing them to enjoy the rewards, promotions, innovations, and other value-added services currently available to customers who can shop for power .

Most Illinois Opt-Out Aggregations Approved; Illinois Electric Customers Must Exercise Right to Shop for Lower Rates

On the March 20 ballot, close to 300 Illinois municipalities had referenda seeking voter approval to institute “opt-out” municipal electric aggregation programs.

Under these programs, customers are automatically switched away from their utility (ComEd or Ameren) for their electricity supply , and are placed with an alternative retail electric supplier chosen by the municipal government, unless the customer affirmatively opts out.

SaveOnEnergy.com has previously documented the problems with opt-out municipal aggregation, including most prominently the fact that the savings from these programs are meager, and customers can get lower electric rates by shopping individually for an alternative retail electric supplier.

In fact, current savings available from electric suppliers competing for customers on SaveOnEnergy.com are nearly triple the savings offered to customers by opt-out aggregations.

However, most of the Illinois opt-out municipal aggregation programs on the ballot were approved, meaning customers must be ready to exercise their right to “opt out” and find greater savings in the electric market by working with SaveOnEnergy.com.

If customers don’t opt-out during the initial opt-out window, they may be unable to leave the municipal aggregation in the future (as rates from competing energy providers fall even more), or customers may only be allowed to leave after paying a exorbitant “exit fee” to the municipality, such as $250.

By law, municipalities must notify customers (via mail) of the coming aggregation, and provide a window during which customers can opt out of the pool. However, customers may only be given 30 days to exercise their right to opt out, meaning they must be vigilant to ensure that they receive the opt-out notice and make their election in time.

The timing of this opt-out window will vary with municipality. Some municipalities are ready to begin their aggregations and will soon begin the opt-out period, while others are still selecting their energy supplier , and won’t begin the opt-out period for several months.

But in either case, if customers don’t opt out when they have the chance, they will be locked into the municipal aggregation rate and will be unable to leave unless they pay a penalty.

Additionally, any customer who is already shopping and being served by a competing electric supplier is not included in the municipal aggregation, so another way to ensure that you will always receive the lowest electric rate , and to avoid being included in the aggregation, is to switch to a competing electric supplier now, ahead of the opt-out window.

Illinois electric customers will save more money by opting out, and choosing a lower electric rate offered by electric suppliers competing for their individual business through SaveOnEnergy.com.

Some of the quoted savings from the proposed opt-out municipal aggregations are only 5-10% versus the ComEd electric rate . While this may sound enticing, customers may be unaware that savings as high as 27% for residential customers — and higher for businesses — are available by choosing your own supplier through SaveOnEnergy.com.

In other words, customers lose out on hundreds of dollars in additional savings if they do not opt out of the higher municipal aggregation rate.

How can SaveOnEnergy.com offer customers rates lower than the municipal aggregations?

As previously noted, the municipal aggregations have a tendency to “skim” the savings available to customers for their own benefit. Often times, the municipal aggregation will ask for bids including a higher electric rate charged to customers in exchange for direct monetary contributions from the winning supplier — such as funding for grants, environmental projects, or even new fire trucks. To the electric supplier , they are still discounting their electricity at the same rate — it’s just that with opt-out aggregations, part of the savings are going directly to the city or town, and not the customers in the form of a lower electric rate .

Additionally, the design of opt-out municipal aggregations themselves — which rely on customer inertia and the fact that customers do not make an active choice — lend themselves to higher prices. Suppliers of the municipal aggregations assume that most customers will just sit back and do nothing, meaning customers will be automatically switched to the aggregation. Municipal aggregation suppliers don’t have to “win” these customers individually, and thus don’t have to offer their lowest savings to entice customers to take action and make a switch. Essentially, municipal aggregation suppliers replace the utility as the “default” supplier, and since they expect most customers won’t take the affirmative step to switch, they know they can get away with charging a higher rate than what is offered in the market, because customer inertia will keep customers from switching and finding a lower electric rate .

Customers don’t have to stand for these premium rates charged by municipal aggregations, and can find triple the savings with SaveOnEnergy.com. But customers must exercise their right to opt-out when it becomes available, or shop with SaveOnEnergy.com immediately, to enjoy these savings.

Texas Regulators Poised to Raise Electric Price Cap to $7,500, Or More

Commissioners on the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) have made clear that the current wholesale electric price cap of $3,000 per megawatt-hour (MWh) will be increased, with the only remaining questions being how high, and how soon.

Last week at a PUC open meeting, all three commissioners expressed support for raising the price cap, with two of the commissioners suggesting that the cap should be raised to as high as $7,500/MWh. One proposal would raise the price cap in time for this summer, effective July 1, 2012.

As SaveOnEnergy.com has previously noted, raising the price cap is being pursued as a solution to the generating capacity shortage facing the Texas electric grid , where supply is expected to barely meet demand this summer.

Why is raising the price cap seen as necessary?

Investors capable of developing new power plants in Texas are hesitant to build because any new capacity would have higher sunk, or fixed, costs than the largely depreciated assets that are currently on the grid. New power plants cannot typically include these sunk costs in their bids into the Texas wholesale electric market , because doing so would make their offers uncompetitive and price their power out of the market, since the cheapest bids (bids which only reflect lower, short-run marginal costs from fully depreciated assets) are dispatched first. In other words, the “merit order dispatch” of the Texas electric market — which keeps electric rates low — also reduces assurances that investors will be able to recoup the sunk costs of new power plants.

To recover sunk costs of new power plants, investors rely on scarcity pricing — high wholesale prices produced when electric demand outstrips supply. These prices, which hit the market’s price cap, exceed the marginal costs of most generation, and allow new power plants to earn a margin to recover their fixed or sunk costs. Currently, the wholesale price cap is $3,000/MWh.

However, there is no guarantee that the price cap will ever be hit in a particular year. Because it takes several years to build a power plant, by the time new plants are built, the capacity shortage which previously produced high prices may disappear, if competing generation developers build more power plants than needed, eliminating the prior capacity shortage. Investors fear an over-supply of new capacity which would prevent scarcity pricing from being triggered, and which would prevent them from recovering the sunk cots of new power plants .

While regulators cannot guarantee to investors that the wholesale energy price cap will be hit in the future, by raising the wholesale price cap the PUC is providing investors with a better chance of recovering their costs. With a higher price cap, if the price cap is only hit infrequently, the higher price level will allow generators to recover a greater amount of sunk costs during those infrequent times.

For example, if the price cap remained at $3,000, and investors only expected it to be triggered on five days in 2014 when their new plants come online, investors might calculate that revenues under the $3,000 price cap would be insufficient to recover fixed costs and insufficient to support the needed new power plants . However, if in 2014, the price cap were raised to $7,500, while still only expected to be triggered on five days, the higher revenues available under the $7,500 price cap on those five days might provide enough of an opportunity for investors to recover their sunk costs, and prompt investors take the risk in building new capacity in Texas.

Of course, raising the price cap will impact Texas electric customers . While few customers directly pay wholesale prices, the level of the price cap is reflected in retail electric rates , because it represents a risk to retail electric providers. Retail electric providers must either bear the costs under the price cap, or must buy insurance and other hedging instruments against the cap — in either case, they incur costs which they will pass on to retail customers.

While we do not yet know at what level the new Texas electric price cap will be set, it is clear that Texas retail electric rates will be under pressure to increase. That’s why it remains essential for customers to shop for a low electric rate now with SaveOnEnergy.com, to shield themselves from any price hikes, especially if the PUC raises the price cap for this summer.

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